In 2021, Our country’s aluminum industry will forge ahead, maintain a sustained and good development and operation trend, and achieve good results in terms of output and economic benefits. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, the output of alumina, electrolytic aluminum and aluminum products in my country will be 77.48 million tons, 38.5 million tons, and 61.05 million tons, respectively, up 5%, 4.8%, and 7.4% year-on-year. Throughout 2021, the price of electrolytic aluminum will continue to operate in a high range. The annual average price of spot primary aluminum on the Yangtze River was 18,904 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%. In 2021, my country’s imports of bauxite and alumina (in physical quantities) will be 107.37 million tons and 3.33 million tons respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% and 12.6% respectively; the import of aluminum waste and scrap will be 1.03 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%. ; The import volume of unwrought aluminum was 2.73 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19%; the aluminum export volume was 5.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%.
In 2022, under the influence of many complex and uncertain factors such as the intensification of the international financial market game, the fierce trade competition, and the accelerated repair of the impact of the epidemic on the economies of various countries, the author believes that the development of my country’s aluminum industry may show the following changes:
1. The degree of guarantee of bauxite resources in my country has been further reduced. The results of the 2020 census released by the Ministry of Natural Resources in 2021 show that in 2020, the proven reserves of bauxite resources in Our country are only 576.5024 million tons. This means that the hidden dangers of resource security for the sustainable development of our country’s aluminum industry are rapidly increasing, so it is urgent to increase efforts to solve the problem of comprehensive utilization of low-grade bauxite resources.
2. The trend of Our country’s bauxite dependence on imports is further intensified. In 2021, my country’s bauxite import volume has exceeded 100 million tons. For 2022, my country’s bauxite import volume will continue to grow, and its bauxite purchase cost and transportation cost will also increase.
3. With the growth of alumina production in my country, the production of red mud will continue to increase, and the hidden danger of red mud to the ecological environment is also increasing. According to the annual import of bauxite exceeding 100 million tons, it means that about 60 million tons of imported red mud is produced.
4. Our country’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity and output will continue to maintain a growth trend. In 2022, our country’s electrolytic aluminum production is expected to exceed 40 million tons.
5. Our country’s aluminum processing industry continues to maintain a growth trend. In 2022, in addition to meeting the needs of traditional real estate, automobile and other industries, our country’s aluminum industry will also have new growth needs in infrastructure, aerospace, military, new machinery manufacturing, modern home appliances, new energy and other fields. In addition, new market breakthroughs are also expected in high-voltage electronic capacitor aluminum foil and special aluminum alloy materials.
6. Our country’s secondary aluminum industry will enter a stage of rapid development. In 2022, our country’s secondary aluminum industry will be further upgraded in terms of product structure, that is, the transformation from primary products and intermediate products to high-end products and terminal products. At the same time, our country’s secondary aluminum industry will also face the contradiction between the expansion of production capacity and the shortage of scrap aluminum resources.
7. Our country’s aluminum industry needs to face the energy crisis and the optimization and adjustment of the energy structure to meet the requirements of “dual carbon” and “dual control”. The optimization and adjustment of the energy structure is mainly reflected in: first, the application of new energy and new technologies such as photovoltaic energy and energy storage technology in the aluminum industry will be accelerated; second, the absorption and utilization of carbon dioxide will be highly valued and industrial practice.
8. Our country’s aluminum industry will further extend to the in-depth industrial chain, that is, in-depth cooperation along the upstream and downstream industrial chains, and become more and more refined. This change will make the aluminum industrial chain more and more vertical, and the upstream and downstream cooperation of the industrial chain will also become more and more. more and more perfect.
9. The safety production situation of my country’s aluminum industry is not optimistic, and there are still great hidden dangers in the safety production of the aluminum industry. It is mainly reflected in the following aspects: First, the accumulated stock of red mud produced in the alumina production process is huge, which has exceeded 1 billion tons; For industries with voltage (up to 1600V), high magnetic field, high temperature and high labor intensity, the production and operation environment needs to be improved; the third is the design review of electrolytic aluminum industry projects with high safety risks (objectively speaking, many projects are basically just a matter of approval). There are still hidden dangers in the aspects of safety production management, production technology, etc.; fourth, in the electrolytic aluminum industry in recent years, there have been explosions of rectifier units, explosions of short-circuit ports of electrolytic cells, depolarization explosions of electrolytic cells in operation, and explosions of leaking furnaces of electrolytic cells. When accidents happen and cause huge economic losses, there are some phenomena behind these accidents, such as the lack of attention and the perfunctory principle of “four do not let go” in handling safety accidents; fifth, most projects in the period of high-speed construction of electrolytic aluminum projects The operation is basically more than 5 years, so there are safety risks such as material aging and equipment aging in the production series.
10. The shortage of human resources in my country’s aluminum industry is prominent. It is mainly reflected in: first, not enough attention is paid to the training of high-end talents, and there is a weakening trend in the training of professional talents used by most traditional universities in the field of aluminum industry; second, professional and skilled personnel are aging; third, there is widespread recruitment in the aluminum industry. Difficulty and unstable working hours; Fourth, the company not only lacks high-level talents and technologies, but also does not pay enough attention to the training of professional talents.
11. New technologies such as artificial intelligence, digital transformation and upgrading, industrial Internet and Internet of Things will be accelerated in the aluminum industry. In this regard, in terms of the entire industrial chain of the aluminum industry, the aluminum processing industry is better than the aluminum mine, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, secondary aluminum and aluminum carbon industries.
12. In 2022, our country’s primary aluminum supply and demand will basically balance, but due to the global financial market, post-epidemic economic recovery and many other factors, electrolytic aluminum prices will fluctuate in a relatively high range.
13. The prices of the main and auxiliary raw materials in my country’s aluminum industry will generally rise. The main reasons: First, the US economic inflation has further intensified, and the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates, which affects the price of commodities and raw materials; second, the global economy is eager to recover after the epidemic, but it takes time for the supply chain of various industries to recover. Therefore, the supply of production capacity There will be a gap, which will push up prices; thirdly, as the world’s largest producer and consumer of electrolytic aluminum, my country’s domestic aluminum consumption market is expected to grow in 2022; fourthly, due to the long-term impact of the epidemic, various industries will appear materials to varying degrees (including daily necessities, industrial supplies, etc.) lack, etc.
14. Our country’s alumina, electrolytic aluminum and aluminum carbon industries still have great potential in terms of energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection. In 2022, major enterprises will do better.
15. The marketing model of my country’s aluminum industry is further optimized. The first is the close cooperation between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain to reduce transportation costs and production consumption; the second is to change the previous traditional mode of production first and then consumption, but to evolve towards the mode of first consumption and then production; the third is the promotion and application of big data and the Internet of Things; fourth It is based on my country’s strong internal circulation demand market and continues to deepen the international market.
In short, the world situation is turbulent, and economic development needs to cut waves. The fundamentals of the supply and demand pattern of the aluminum industry in 2022 will continue to improve.
Post time: Mar-07-2022