Dutch aluminum plant: the cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has risen sharply
An aluminum factory in the Netherlands said that 60-70% electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been closed since October 10 due to the shortage of power supply. Due to the shortage of overseas energy, the price of oil and gas continues to rise, the cost of electrolytic aluminum production enterprises has risen sharply, and the production of electrolytic aluminum in overseas aluminum plants has suffered losses. CRU data shows that the production of primary aluminum in the fourth quarter increased by 3.8% year-on-year. Rising prices are the main reason for energy shortages, and there is once again an expectation of an increase in the supply of overseas primary aluminum.
Electrolytic aluminum dual-control barometer first-level warning table
Domestically, the early warning list of the electrolytic aluminum dual-control barometer includes Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Shanxi, Guangxi, Yunnan and other major electrolytic aluminum provinces. In recent years, two energy-saving measures have been introduced in various places. In September of this year, China’s electrolytic aluminum output was negative for the first time in 21 months. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity dropped to 37.45 million tons per year, and the electrolytic aluminum output fell sharply. Due to the dual control of curtailment restrictions, production capacity has been reduced by 3.3 million tons so far this year. In addition, Yunnan, Guangxi and Ningxia continue to be subject to double restrictions. Due to the shortage of electricity during the heating season and the limited production during the Olympics, aluminum electrolysis capacity faces the risk of restricting production. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of this year, domestic electrolytic aluminum production will increase by 7.1%, and in the first quarter of next year, it will increase by -8.8%
Affected by high aluminum prices and downstream production restrictions, aluminum bar stocks continue to increase
The domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory was this Thursday. Judging by seasonal trends, the social pool will still decrease significantly in the next two months. However, due to the extension of production restrictions to the downstream, since the beginning of September, the social library has continuously accumulated, and the spot is at a discount to the futures contract. Whether the inventory in the next stage can continue to decline depends on whether the production restriction in the lower reaches of East China and South China can be eased.
Affected by high aluminum prices and downstream production restrictions, aluminum bar stocks continue to increase
If judged by seasonal trends, inventories will still decrease significantly in the next two months. However, due to the extension of production restrictions to the downstream, inventories have continued to accumulate since the beginning of September, and the spot is at a discount to futures contracts. Whether the inventory in the next stage can continue to decline depends on whether the production restriction in the lower reaches of East China and South China can be eased.
The cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain an upward trend
The core reason for the recent round of power rationing is the shortage of coal. The soaring coal price has caused insufficient coal storage in power plants. Power supply has decreased. Affected by factors such as the liberalization of the national coal price policy and the continued increase in alumina prices, the price of electrolytic aluminum has accelerated, and smelting profits have now narrowed to about 4,000 yuan per ton. The cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain an upward trend. Although the profit is still high and has no actual impact on the supply, the market is optimistic about the sentiment of aluminum prices.
Spot Lun aluminum price is raised to 22 US dollars per ton
Starting from June 6.9, there has been a discount on Lun aluminum spot in March, and the discount was adjusted to US$22 per ton last week. Import profits fell again in October, and market pressure was immediately apparent.
Aluminum bar/rod
The sharp rise in energy prices boosted inflation expectations
Summary: The further restrictions on the domestic annual output forecast and whether the new output can be invested next year are still facing uncertainty. The continuity of the supply contraction has increased; in the case of energy shortages and multiple outbreaks, overseas supply is also decreasing. Although the growth rate of consumption has declined. The imbalance between supply and demand in global aluminum prices and the sharp rise in energy prices have pushed up inflation expectations. Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the performance of the medium and long-term aluminum prices, and the range of fluctuations has gradually increased. The risk point is that the continuous accumulation of selling and social inventory will have an impact on the rise of aluminum prices. The range of change: 23800 yuan/ton -24800 yuan/ton.
Post time: Oct-20-2021